34/ Today's situation in the world – Ukrainian counteroffensive
Throughout the reading of this text, let us keep in mind that in today's world the war is won in the information space, not on the battlefield. I laid out the reasons for this claim in my previous article, "Do We Live in a Virtual Reality? The Age of Gods." If we grasp that idea, it becomes easier to see what has happened, and what may yet happen, with the long-touted Ukrainian counteroffensive.
For at least a year now, the Ukrainians have been preparing and getting ready for an offensive against the occupying forces, against the "Rashists," against "Mordor," against "orcs," and so on. I deliberately highlight these key words of Ukrainian propaganda, which dehumanize the other person and create, in the mind of the individual, an alibi for uncompromising treatment of another human being. In this indirect way, they unblock, within the population, the human inhibition against killing. Propaganda of death has been present in Ukraine's information space since the very start of the conflict, and it is very powerful. Goebbels was not wrong when he said: "Give me control of the media, and I will turn any nation into a herd of swine."
There is nothing complicated, nothing sophisticated, about this tactic, about this method of manipulation — it merely exploits certain human traits and possibilities, and it underscores the fascist nature of Ukraine's governance, because in exactly the same way, relying on the same human traits, albeit with different means, the fascists steered the German nation through Goebbels's propaganda in the last century.
THE OPPONENTS IN THE CONFLICT
It is not within Ukraine's power — even if its entire nation were placed inside an information bubble full of rage and anger — to win a fight against Russia. Not only because of the balance of forces, but chiefly because of history and lived experience. The Russians have more than once found themselves face to face with deranged people deceived by fascist propaganda, and so their population is automatically prepared to offer fierce resistance to injustice. Ukraine is trying to reclaim territories in which more than eighty percent of the population is ethnically Russian. For this reason alone, any counteroffensive is doomed to fail — and that is without even counting the fact that you are up against a far greater power.
But is it really Ukraine against Russia in this conflict? Or Russia against Ukraine? What sense would this neighborly conflict between kin even make? More raw materials for the Russians? More raw materials for Ukraine?
Any human rivalry, since the dawn of creation, has been marked by the desire to seize others' resources for one's own prosperity, for one's own benefit. Russia has one hundred fifty million inhabitants across an enormous territory rich in mineral resources. Ukraine has forty million inhabitants across a fairly large territory rich in raw materials. Why would this bloody conflict need to arise?
Unless it isn't Ukraine standing against the Russians at all, but the entire collective West, with its pyramid-scheme economy, its colonial model, its inflated bubble with ever-growing debt. Indeed, everything is at stake in this conflict, because the indebted West has one last chance to get its hands on the raw materials of the whole world, on the minds of the whole world, on the information database of the whole world. If it fails, trust will shatter, the dollar will fall, and the resulting hyperinflation will sever all the old vassal ties of the subjugated states — and, conversely, spark trust in new models already being built (BRICS).
We are watching, in real time, the final showdown of corporations against humanity. Slavers against people.
KEY FACTORS IN THE CONFLICT
The global conflict has two main fronts — the Russian and the Chinese. These two countries are today the key to building sufficient resistance against the corporations and to launching new economic models that stabilize our world. Hypothetically, should either of these two countries fall, the conflict will very likely have a clear winner — the corporations. As long as Russia and China have stable governments, their mutual cooperation keeps generating new mechanisms for the economic models of the future, based on decentralization and multipolarity.
The West is trying to sever this cooperation, and to replace the government in one country or the other. While in China an internal conflict is simmering, driven by the Taiwan crisis, Russia faces the slaughter of its own population on Ukrainian territory, with the direct involvement of all Western states.
The corporations understand that Russia cannot be defeated militarily; it can, however, be undermined from within through sufficiently large, induced discontent among the population — and so they do everything they can to frighten and demoralize the population, so that it submits on its own and falls to its knees.
THE START OF THE UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE
We have been able to watch the terrorizing of the population, the spreading of fear, the senseless killing of people since the very start of the conflict — and not only the global one, but also since the modern-day phase in Ukraine, since the very start of Maidan.
The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was no different: a small group of Ukrainian troops, rebranded as "Russian liberators," attacked the Belgorod region and made it as far as the third village from the border. Within a few hours they were suppressed and eliminated, though they managed to wound a few people and kill one. Shelling of the entire Belgorod region from Ukrainian territory then began. Civilian property was pointlessly destroyed and people were killed, but with a clear aim: to divert attention from the starting position being prepared in the Zaporizhzhia region. It was interesting to watch how certain voices from within Russia called for regrouping troops and reinforcing precisely the Belgorod region. A false picture was being pushed, suggesting that Ukrainian forces would be capable of marching directly onto Russian territory.
On the other side, interesting information games could already be seen during the Battle of Bakhmut, in which Yevgeny Prigozhin became famous for his personal involvement and bravery. Very often, through videos, he criticized the Russian command for failing to adequately supply his army with ammunition and technical equipment; he even took it so far, on one occasion, that standing over the bodies of his own soldiers, he cursed at the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Shoigu. Even Kadyrov could not stomach that, and responded to Prigozhin, again via social media. A subtle justification came from Prigozhin the very next day, when, in one video, he said, more or less, and I'm paraphrasing: "Let us play our own games."
Naturally, everything that flickers in the information field is immediately followed by the intelligence services of the opposing side, and this very internal conflict gave them hope of breaking the front — which is why Ukraine kept sending its units into militarily insignificant Bakhmut and tried to defend it to the last, hoping that the Russians would, at any moment, run out of resources, run out of nerve. They did not run out. The Ukrainians suffered enormous, meaningless losses. After Bakhmut fell, the front stabilized, and the Ukrainian failure had to be papered over quickly. The Ukrainians began filming propaganda videos in which armed men demonstrated that no one would announce the start of the offensive, that the Russians wouldn't even notice — and then the offensive would begin. Thanks to hackers, people in Crimea, as well as in Donetsk and Luhansk, were able to watch these videos. A familiar tactic: spreading fear.
On June 4, 2023, the Ukrainians began attacking the Zaporizhzhia front. The counteroffensive had begun.
On June 5, 2023, the Ukrainians opened all the sluice gates of the dam on the upper reaches of the Kakhovka reservoir.
On June 6, 2023, the Kakhovka dam collapsed.
A very dangerous act of escalation, one that created an ecological catastrophe with serious consequences for the future.
RAISING THE STAKES
The ongoing conflict reveals its significance, its transnational, global character precisely through the continually escalating steps taken by the opposing sides. We can clearly observe this escalation — from the targeted elimination of foreign decision-making centers, the elimination of top-ranking generals, the elimination of the most modern air defense systems with the most advanced hypersonic missiles, all the way to the deliberate creation of ecological catastrophes on Ukrainian territory. Tension keeps rising and the confrontation keeps escalating. The stakes are increasing, and it now seems that everyone is simply waiting to go all in.
TODAY IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE WEST WILL NOT WIN MILITARILY, OUTRIGHT
While writing this article, an event took place that was unprecedented until now, and highly significant. Prigozhin marched with his forces on Moscow. To understand this venture, one must try to picture the entire situation as it stood at the time. Personally, I would describe the event, within the framework of the war, as a seizing of the initiative.
The turning point came just a few weeks after the launch of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which cost Ukraine an enormous number of casualties and which, incidentally, achieved no notable success on the battlefield. Quite the opposite — the counteroffensive can be described as an underestimation of the enemy; it can be called a mistake. Prigozhin's march occurred exactly at the moment when Ukrainian units were regrouping after suffering enormous losses, which placed the Ukrainians before an unenviable decision: seize the opportunity and attack unprepared, or wait to see how the situation would develop and miss the right moment to attack. The British quickly, and very shrewdly, advised them. "British intelligence recommends that Kyiv not launch the second phase of the counteroffensive, but instead focus on informational and psychological work in the context of the situation around PMC Wagner, and on destabilizing the situation inside Russia." Hypothetically, had Ukraine taken the bait and attacked recklessly and without preparation, it would have suffered a definitive military defeat, because Russia's defenses, despite the events unfolding, were prepared along the entire front.
But the march on Moscow was not merely a military trap — it was also a victory over an internal enemy and a seizing of the initiative on the battlefield, because the opponent no longer sets the pace, but must instead react to the newly arisen situation involving Wagner's forces in Belarus. Personally, I believe this was a planned operation, known only to a very small group of people, including Prigozhin, Putin, the leadership of the FSB, and perhaps a few others. Neither the soldiers of the Russian Federation nor the sleeper cells within Wagner's army knew about the event in advance; they simply carried out orders. This secrecy ultimately caused one Wagner air-defense unit to shoot down a very valuable aircraft carrying specialists on board, and even one soldier — a sleeper agent of Moscow — was killed while attempting to assassinate Prigozhin. In any case, the action achieved its purpose: it reaffirmed the strength of power in Russia, exposed new subversive elements who immediately sided with the mutiny, exhausted the potential for a fresh coup attempt — the very kind Western states rely so heavily on — and, in the end, moved its own attacking knight on the chessboard into Belarus. So, within the span of a single month, the Russians showed the West that they can withstand pressure both on the battlefield and deep within their own society, in the rear. The West, the corporations, can today rely neither on a coup nor on a victory on the battlefield.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?
On one side, the Russian side, I expect that over the summer the West's offensive potential will be eroded through economic means — the value of the dollar will fall, and satisfaction among the Western population will drop sharply. On the other side, the Ukrainian side, the corporate side, I fear that only the worst kinds of provocations remain available. We must constantly bear in mind that the corporations do not care about people — not a single one. Their only solution to the problems of this Earth is depopulation, and that is exactly how they behave, across every sphere, every level of their influence.
The destruction of the Kakhovka dam hints at the next phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, provided the summer turns hot and warm in that region. After summer, an expansion of the attacking front by roughly 200 km is expected. And not only that. As the land gradually dries out, extensive marshes full of mosquitoes are forming in the area. Russian intelligence has already warned that the opposing side plans to use mosquitoes to spread malaria in the zone of military operations. There is potential here for many deaths through the spread of deadly diseases, not only on one side but on both. Mosquitoes do not choose their victims — but the corporations, of course, could not care less. They need casualties, and the more the better. Following the same logic, the possibility of an attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is being created, which could cause a catastrophe of European significance: if the reactors were to explode, an enormous area would be contaminated, in whichever direction the wind happens to be blowing at the time.
I therefore expect a very turbulent summer — decisive, shocking, full of hateful propaganda, propaganda of death. The Western economy, after all, will not be able to endure the coming winter, or only with enormous discontent among its own citizens. Time is working against the corporations, and that is why the Russians are in no hurry to go anywhere.
An unanswered question, for me, is whether the Chinese front will flare up in the foreseeable future.
CONCLUSION
We need to come to our senses — tomorrow may already be too late — we need to free ourselves from destructive propaganda, from destructive people who, however beautifully and eloquently they may speak, leave behind them nothing but death and tears. You will recognize them easily — by the money, by the corporate backing, by their deeds.
The value of money will fall, governance through money will decline. Very soon, common sense will become the main commodity. Let us train ourselves, let us think, let us discuss, let us respond to one another, let us learn to govern ourselves, so that we are not governed by people who want, who wish for, our death.
In these very days, the West has seen, with its own eyes, its own hopeless situation. Hopes for a coup collapsed within twenty-four hours. The Russians passed their test of life, their maneuver of life. Human society remained solid and did not break. On the battlefield, no one can defeat a people so united, because society already knows who its enemy is, and what fascist character that enemy has, what character the Western corporations have. The historical experience of the Russian people with fascism will not let anyone stray from the path.
However, before the first financial tremors hit, there is a strong likelihood of enormous provocations and of catastrophes being hurled at the opponent; the informational battlefield will be the very last thing to decide the final outcome. It will be the last kick of a dying horse — it will be propaganda of death.
Juraj Tušš
